Ford’s Big Smoke?

I am fascinated by the recent story about Toronto’s mayor, Rob Ford allegedly smoking crack on video.  I don’t particularly like Rob Ford, but knowing that he may use hard drugs actually helps me sympathize with him in ways I couldn’t otherwise.  It suggests he’s suffered in life, and is desperate for an escape even if the escape is illusory and comes with serious consequences.  It makes him seem flawed in a way far more engaging and authentic than I could have expected, given his more public flaws.  Frankly, if he comes out in the media today and publicly owns his habit, then I might even have some admiration for the guy.

Rob Ford's Crack

He may come out and publicly deny the story.  That’s fine too, provided the video is a fraud.  One ought to deny vigorously any false allegation.  On the other hand, the absolute worst thing Rob Ford could do is to deny the story when it is actually true.  So long as Ford denies the story, the crowd sourcing scheme to raise money will continue to gather donations (they’re at 85K as I write this).  At some point, enough money will be cobbled together to buy the video from the drug dealers that produced it.  Providing large cash payments to drug dealers is worrisome; while it could buy them out of the crack business, it could also buy them the tools to cause some serious trouble.  If the video is real and Ford owns the deed, then the value of the video falls—we don’t need to see it any more to know the truth.  His admission would quickly undermine demand to see the video, and therefore lower the financial return to the drug dealers.

There are other fascinating dimensions to the story.  Are the persons selling the video breaking the law by releasing it, even without a direct threat of extortion?  Ford clearly has a ‘reasonable expectation of privacy’ that would make it a violation of the criminal code for him to be filmed in secret.  But then, Ford would have been breaking the law too by smoking a prohibited drug.  What exactly is the role of law enforcement here?  If the police were to acquire the video, would they make it public?  I wonder if the drug dealers have backed it up on Dropbox?

One thing for sure is that this whole fiasco makes Toronto look bad.  It’s not clear who’s to blame for that at this point, but I’m not sure it matters.  In the end, nobody really wins, and the City of Toronto, if not the GTA as a whole, suffers.  Just great.

The Poverty of Historians

Niall Ferguson is a neo-conservative apologist employed as an historian at Harvard.  Recently he said something stupid about John Maynard Keynes which caused a bit of a fuss.  I’m going to put the row into context.

Turd Ferguson

Turd Ferguson

Keynes was critical of the theoretical economic models that economists at the time used to justify the free market with little government participation.  The traditional view was that given enough time, free markets work.  Keynes simply pointed out that this isn’t good enough.  Human existence is not teleological—we have no inherent economic objective or purpose.  Instead, we need to think about economics in terms of human welfare.  Pure free market economics, as it was at the time, made short-term suffering for the sake of some possible long-run objective rational.  Keynes thought this was problematic, which is why he’s responsible for the well-known aphorism ‘in the long run, we’re all dead.’  What Keynes was saying is that people live in the short run—here and now—and in the short run, suffer the consequences of free market volatility.  So Keynes argued it’s better to do something now rather than wait for the (possible) correctives of the free market business cycle.

Niall Ferguson seems to think that Keynes favoured the short run over the long run for selfish reasons.  Namely, Keynes had no children, so he was biased to discount the value of long term welfare differently than someone with children.  Ferguson’s speculation on the reasons why Keynes thought what he did are embarrassing, silly, and unbecoming of a public intellectual.  But more importantly, there’s nothing wrong or irrational with putting more value in the short term than the long term.  In fact, that’s simply good economics.  It is a standard practice in business to treat a quantity of money in one’s possession now as worth more than the same quantity of money in the future.  Partly this is because money now is guaranteed and future money is not.  So all Keynes was doing was arguing that for people now, today is here, and we are more certain about the effects of policy today than the effects of policy in the long term.  So naturally, we should put much of our policy emphasis on what we are more certain about.

Of course, Ferguson is an historian, and the long term is important to historians.  So naturally Ferguson is going to think that the long term is what really matters—it’s what keeps historians employed.  But as any good social scientists SHOULD tell you, long term history isn’t the least bit informative for helping us understand (predict) the complexity of human systems, though it is fun.  Kind of like the Lord of the Rings.

Hardwired to bully? A neocon’s misuse of evolution by natural selection

Jonathan Kay, National Post opionator, never misses an opportunity to describe the world in neoconservative terms.  Last year he wrote an article about bullying in which he argues that 1) bullying is evolutionarily adaptive 2) anti-bullying messaging programs can’t overcome the pull of evolutionary adaptation and so 3) the only effective tool for bully prevention is threat of punishment.

This is a classic neocon critique of virtually every non-punitive social program.  Underlying this critique is an assumption that humans are nasty and brutish clods, and that the only way to regulate our behaviour is to either create markets that incentivize good behaviour, or to punish bad behaviour.  This idea is inspired by a hundred-year old half-witted interpretation of evolution by natural selection—that we humans have a fundamental nature that somehow defines the structure modern society.  Advocates use this as a tool to squelch all attempts at social welfare.  Publicly funded health care?  Impossible! Our inner savages will abuse it.  Alternative sentencing for minor offences?  Ridiculous!  It will incentivize criminal behaviour.

Assuming that bullying is adaptive, it still doesn’t follow that threat of punishment is the preferred tool of prevention, particularly for children and adolescents.  First, I assume that Kay is mostly referring to non-criminal bullying since criminal acts are already covered by the criminal code.  Non-criminal bullying takes a form that is, by virtue of its legal status, harder to quantify as harm.  As a result, it may often be difficult to identify it, and indeed, hard to distinguish the bully from bullied.  Who called who what first?  Who started the fight?    Who shot the first spit ball?   Even carefully deliberated punishments could end up a form of bullying themselves, particularly when directed against innocent (or even partly innocent) parties.  The high profile bullying cases that have made the news in Canada recently are, fortunately, rare, but the more common cases are likely to often reside in a grey and nebulous territory between right and wrong, and will very likely be hard for any figure of authority to identify for the purpose of meting out fair punishment.

Second, and more profoundly, Kay’s dismissal of messaging as a bully prevention tool is a pretty clear logical contradiction. The reason why he and most of us want to stop bullying is because of a widely believed social norm that bullying is wrong.  This norm emerged not out of threats of punishment, but through a gradual shift in definition of right and wrong.  Sociologists spend their careers trying to understand the cause of these normative shifts, perhaps with little demonstrable success, but it is clear that the communication of shared experience between individual citizens–a form of grass roots messaging–is a necessary part of the process.  So even if Kay’s assertion that humans are natural bullies is true, it’s clearly irrelevant since we currently define bullying as wrong in normative terms.  The emergence of a near consensus that bullying is wrong is itself evidence that anti-bullying messaging must work in some sense.

Still, Kay suggests that the real problem is the adolescent brain—adolescents are particularly unreceptive to anti-bullying social norms because they are hardwired to use bullying to advance their placement in the “high-school hierarchy”.  While he cites some evidence in support of this claim, it remains contentious even among the very authors he refers to.  For example, Volk et al. 2012 (one of the studies he cites) do not reject outright the idea that bullies are the “result of impoverished individual or environmental factors” but simply argue that there are bullies of different types–including some who use it to advance their position in the adolescent pecking order.  This is the standard nuance we should expect to see from good researchers,  but missing from Kay’s analysis.  In fact, Volk recently wrote a piece for the Globe & Mail in which he clearly contradicts Kay’s argument, writing that “dollars spent on understanding or on prevention are dollars far better spent than dollars spent on punishment.”

Kay’s generalization about adolescent nature also seems to be an empirical falsehood; high-schools today are not immune to the many changes in social norms that have occurred over the last century—such as an acceptance of racial and gender equity and tolerance towards the gay and lesbian community.  A natural extension of Kay’s argument is that high schools should be a hotbed of regressive thinking and conflict on racial grounds, but in fact, high schools have not only changed in line with broader society, in some cases they have pioneered positive social norms in their communities.

Human beings prove very capable of creating social institutions that are generous, cooperative and sympathetic in spite of our genetic selfishness.  These institutions should never be condemned because they guide us from our ‘natural’ selves; indeed, that is precisely why they deserve our praise.  Kay misused academic research to make broad generalizations about the nature of human adolescent behaviour, and to recommend future policies on bully prevention that are counter-productive.  Putz.

God is a bad writer

 “if a man has sexual relations with a man as one does with a woman, both of them have done what is detestable. They are to be put to death; their blood will be on their own heads.” Leviticus 20:13

God needs to read Elements of Style.  The words “both of them have” could be replaced with “he has” and conveyed just as much information.

Social engineering education

In a recent article by Greg Weston, Stephen Harper is said to be miffed at the abundance of BA graduates in Canada these days.  More specifically, the federal government (which contributes very little to provincial education costs) is upset that provinces aren’t doing more to prepare students for the workplaces that the federal government thinks they should work in.

Stephen Harper getting his BA?

Stephen Harper getting his BA?

Given that post-secondary costs of education are increasingly paid by students (around 40% of the costs of university operating revenues in Ontario are now paid for directly by students, for example) it is strange that the federal government won’t simply let the post-secondary education market do its work.  Presumably young people are able to decide for themselves what education they want, so it seems reasonable that the government doesn’t need get too involved in manipulating the education choices available.  It’s even stranger hearing such talk from a a Prime Minister who identifies himself as a small-government economic conservative.  Can’t the invisible hand of the market sort all of this out in the long run?

At any rate, any mismatch between the needs of the market and the education choices available need to be understood in the appropriate context.  Consider the graphic I generated using Statistics Canada data:

Enrolment trends in Canada

Enrolment trends in Canada

While social science and humanities graduates take up the largest share of enrolment in post-secondary education, the programs are still in the minority overall, and there is no particular trend over time.  There is roughly the same proportion of BA graduates today as there was in the era in which the Prime Minister earned his BA from the University of Calgary.

Are there too many BA graduates?  I have no idea, nor do I know how one could determine such a thing with any certainty.  Is there a ‘skills shortage’ in Canada?  Probably, but it isn’t clear that a government strategy to match education output to labour market needs in the short term would translate into greater long term prosperity for Canadians.  Given these unknowns, I say let the students decide; over time, the market for labour and education should work itself out better than any pseudo-intellectual soothsaying originating from the halls of Parliament.  Furthermore, I do find it somewhat hypocritical that the current conservative government would claim to know what education is best for Canada’s young people.  It seems like more neoliberal social engineering scheme to me.